Non-stationary ETAS to model earthquake occurrences affected by episodic aseismic transients

Abstract

We present a non-stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model in which the usual assumption of stationary background rate is relaxed. Such a model could be used for modeling seismic sequences afected by aseismic transients such as fuid/magma intrusion, slow slip earthquakes (SSEs), etc. The non-stationary background rate is expressed as a linear combination of B-splines, and a method is proposed that allows for simultaneous estimation of background rate as well as other ETAS model parameters. We also present an extension to this non-stationary ETAS model where an adaptive roughness penalty function is used and consequently provides better estimates of rapidly varying background rate functions. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated on synthetic catalogs and an application to detect earthquake swarms (possibly associated with SSEs) in Hikurangi margin (North Island, New Zealand) is presented.